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Election Analysts Predict Democrats Will Win Presidency, House and Senate, Based on Primary Data

Jericho Casper



Screenshot of panelists from the CQ Roll Call webcast

August 14, 2020 — Based on data gathered from primary elections, experts at a Thursday webinar hosted by CQ Roll Call predicted that Democrats would strengthen their hold on the House and flip the majority in the Senate, and that Joe Biden would win the 2020 presidential election.

Americans are currently seeing party dynamics, likely to guide the outcome of the presidential election, play out across the country in state and district elections. At this time next week, only five states will have yet to hold their primaries.

“I expect it to be close, but expect Democrats to prevail,” said Nathan Gonzales, an election analyst for CQ Roll Call. “There is universal agreement — the data is pointing in one direction.”

“Even Democrats in districts that people assumed would be the most vulnerable at the beginning of the cycle are in a position where they could very well win their races,” said Stephanie Akin, a journalist at CQ Roll Call.  

According to the panelists, Democrats are more than likely to gain control of the Senate, as they only need a net gain of three or four seats to do so. Furthermore, eight of the 10 most vulnerable seats in the Senate are currently held by Republicans.

Panelists predicted that House Democrats would see an increase in seats, and that Republicans would likely sink deeper into the minority.

Republicans would need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority in the House.

According to Gonzales, President Donald Trump is currently underperforming his 2016 totals by 8 to 10 points or more around the country, and dozens of Republicans, previously regarded as safe for reelection, are potentially vulnerable of losing their seats.

The federal response to the pandemic has caused the president’s approval rating to drop significantly, and panelists further equated Trump’s downfall to his response to protests against racial injustice.

These actions, among others, resulted in the president losing the support of suburban Republican voters, panelists said.

“It’s surprising, given the climate and Trump’s approval rating, that Trump loyalty continues to be a primary strategy utilized,” Akin said.

However, the strategy has worked for some, resulting in QAnon conspiracy theorist Marjorie Taylor Greene winning Georgia’s 14th District.


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