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Netflix Will Lose and Disney Will Win the Streaming Wars, Predicts Financial Analyst at Tech Policy Institute Event

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Laura Martin by David Jelke

WASHINGTON, February 10, 2020 – Netflix will lose and Disney+ will win the streaming wars, said Laura Martin, an equity analyst at Needham & Co. at an event of the Technology Policy Institute on Thursday.

Martin offered her expert prediction and argued that Netflix will fail because its price point is too high versus a Hulu service as low as $6 a month.

Martin also criticized Netflix’s rigidity in not offering a bundled package, as “bundles lower churn,” or the rate at which consumers opt out of subscriptions.

She also said that the fact that Netflix has not grown with domestic users for the past five quarters spells trouble for the company.

She contrasted this with Disney+’s business model, in which the company owns its own streaming content and controls a massive content library. Indeed, Disney is responsible for 40 percent of all Hollywood revenue.

The rollout of Disney’s streaming service consisted almost entirely of advertised movies, which have been shown to increase subscriber switching. Furthermore, it has maintained a large library of television, which has been shown to keep subscribers once they’ve joined.

Martin, however, did admit that Netflix CEO Reed Hastings is “a genius” and that Netflix’s trajectory may surprise her.

Martin also commented on some of the other streaming services offered by cable such as the new Peacock service offered by NBC. She criticized Universal’s decision to not piggyback off the Universal brand (theme parks, movies) because it is much more work to build a brand from scratch with an indirect name like Peacock.

On the other hand, HBO doesn’t need to worry if its streaming service HBOMax fails, because it will ultimately make money by bundling streaming with its cell service, Martin said.

For the future, Martin highlighted eSports. In a world where a 16-year old wins a $3 million check for playing Fortnite and colleges offer scholarships to talented video gamers, Martin predicts that mothers will “back off” from scolding their tech-addicted children and that the industry will radically grow.

David Jelke was a Reporter for Broadband Breakfast. He graduated from Dartmouth College with a degree in neuroscience. Growing up in Miami, he learned to speak Spanish during a study abroad semester in Peru. He is now teaching himself French on his iPhone.

Big Tech

Big Tech Reforms Need Review of Cybersecurity to Ensure Capabilities Will Not Be Diminished, Event Hears

Despite their efforts to improve consumer competition and security, some argue Congress’s legislation could have unintended effects.

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Photo of John Negroponte courtesy Duke Univesity

WASHINGTON, May 26, 2022 – Experts warned Monday that antitrust legislation being considered to rein in Big Tech could exacerbate cybersecurity concerns that may jeopardize smaller players.

During a Foreign Policy panel hosted on Monday, American Enterprise Institute Senior Fellow Klon Kitchen said many startups are dependent on the underlying datasets, technologies, and code provided by large technology companies.

He argued that while giants like Microsoft can invest billions of dollars in cybersecurity, smaller companies simply do not have the capital necessary to invest in their own protocols. He called for legislation to have a “robust and honest” security review before it is adopted – reviews he argued are not currently taking place.

Though the panelists did not point specifically to any one bill that is particularly harmful, there are currently several high-profile bills aimed at reforming the tech industry.

One such bill that has been in the spotlight for several months is Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s, D-Minn., Consolidation Prevention and Competition Promotion Act of 2021, or S.3267. This bill would severely limit large tech companies from engaging in the acquisition of nascent competitors. The bill has been introduced in the Senate and has been read twice and referred to the Committee on the Judiciary.

American companies targeted in a field with global players

Former Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte also expressed concerns Monday about various antitrust legislation before Congress.

Maggie Lake and John Negroponte

“The various proposed bills out there generally only apply to a handful of United States companies, and in addition to that, they would not apply at all to foreign companies,” he said. “This is not a purely domestic market, although sometimes reading these laws, you would think that the drafters believe [that is the case].”

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Antitrust

FTC Commissioner Concerned About Antitrust Impact on Already Rising Consumer Prices

Noah Phillips said Tuesday he wants the commission to think about the impact of antitrust rules on rising prices.

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Screenshot of Federal Trade Commissioner Noah Phillips

WASHINGTON, May 17, 2022 – Rising inflation should be a primary concern for the Federal Trade Commission when considering antitrust regulations on Big Tech, said Commissioner Noah Phillips Tuesday.

When considering laws, “the important thing is what impact it has on the consumer,” said Phillips. “We need to continue to guard like a hawk against conduct and against laws that have the effect of raising prices for consumers.”

Current record highs in the inflation rate, which means money is becoming less valuable as products become more expensive, has meant Washington must become sensitive to further price increases that could come out of such antitrust legislation, the commissioner said.

Phillips did not comment on how such movies would mean higher prices, but that signals, such as theHouse Judiciary Committee’s antitrust report two years ago, that reign in Big Tech companies and bring back enforcement of laws could mean higher prices. He raised concerns that recent policies are prohibiting competition rather than facilitating it.

This follows recent concerns that the American Innovation and Choice Online Act, currently awaiting Senate floor consideration, will inhibit America’s global competitiveness by weakening major American companies, thus impairing the American economy. That legislation would prohibit platform owners from giving preference to their products against third-party products.

This act is one of many currently under consideration at Congress, including Ending Platform Monopolies Act and Platform Competition and Opportunity Act.

Small businesses have worried that by enacting some legislation targeting Big Tech, they would be impacted because they rely on such platforms for success.

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Big Tech

Small Business Owners Call for FTC, DOJ to Institute Antitrust Measures Against Big Tech

Small business owners vocalized concerns at a forum hosted by the FTC and the DoJ.

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Screenshot of FTC Chairwoman Lina Khan

WASHINGTON, May 17, 2022 – Small business owners and employees urged the Federal Trade Commission last week to take further action against big tech company mergers that dominate their markets.

With Washington’s focus on scrutinizing potential mergers, small business members that appeared on a forum Thursday hosted by the FTC and Justice Department pushed for antitrust measures against market monopolization that they said undermines small business success. Jonathan Kanter, the assistant attorney general for the antitrust Division, called this a “new generation of digital giants.”

Saagar Enjeti, host of a media podcast, expressed his inability to participate in a truly free and open internet due to the influence of big tech companies, in which he said there has been a rash of misinformation on the coronavirus, the 2020 presidential election, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Bradley Tusk, a venture capitalist who invests in tech startups, said he wants the FTC to have “more scrutiny” on big tech mergers. “The FTC should aggressively do everything in its power to do the job itself,” said Tusk.

Erin Wade agreed for more scrutiny on monopolies in which DoorDash and UberEats compete. As a restaurant owner, she said delivery mega platforms are harming restaurant profits and disrupting their business via tactics including underpricing their delivery fees and “bund[ling] orders so badly it damages customer relations.

“Small businesses are central to the American economy and American democracy,” Wade said during the event, pushing for the FTC to place more scrutiny on big tech companies.

According to FTC Chairwoman Lina Khan, as several digital platforms continue to control the market today, anti-trust agencies should do what they can to encourage competition and provide checks on these big tech companies.

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