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Election Analysts Predict Democrats Will Win Presidency, House and Senate, Based on Primary Data

Jericho Casper

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Screenshot of panelists from the CQ Roll Call webcast

August 14, 2020 — Based on data gathered from primary elections, experts at a Thursday webinar hosted by CQ Roll Call predicted that Democrats would strengthen their hold on the House and flip the majority in the Senate, and that Joe Biden would win the 2020 presidential election.

Americans are currently seeing party dynamics, likely to guide the outcome of the presidential election, play out across the country in state and district elections. At this time next week, only five states will have yet to hold their primaries.

“I expect it to be close, but expect Democrats to prevail,” said Nathan Gonzales, an election analyst for CQ Roll Call. “There is universal agreement — the data is pointing in one direction.”

“Even Democrats in districts that people assumed would be the most vulnerable at the beginning of the cycle are in a position where they could very well win their races,” said Stephanie Akin, a journalist at CQ Roll Call.  

According to the panelists, Democrats are more than likely to gain control of the Senate, as they only need a net gain of three or four seats to do so. Furthermore, eight of the 10 most vulnerable seats in the Senate are currently held by Republicans.

Panelists predicted that House Democrats would see an increase in seats, and that Republicans would likely sink deeper into the minority.

Republicans would need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority in the House.

According to Gonzales, President Donald Trump is currently underperforming his 2016 totals by 8 to 10 points or more around the country, and dozens of Republicans, previously regarded as safe for reelection, are potentially vulnerable of losing their seats.

The federal response to the pandemic has caused the president’s approval rating to drop significantly, and panelists further equated Trump’s downfall to his response to protests against racial injustice.

These actions, among others, resulted in the president losing the support of suburban Republican voters, panelists said.

“It’s surprising, given the climate and Trump’s approval rating, that Trump loyalty continues to be a primary strategy utilized,” Akin said.

However, the strategy has worked for some, resulting in QAnon conspiracy theorist Marjorie Taylor Greene winning Georgia’s 14th District.

Assistant Editor Jericho Casper graduated from the University of Virginia studying media policy. She grew up in Newport News in an area heavily impacted by the digital divide. She has a passion for universal access and a vendetta against anyone who stands in the way of her getting better broadband.

Broadband's Impact

House Commerce Committee Aligned on Telecom, Mapping and Supply Chain Security, Says Ranking Member

Derek Shumway

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Photo from Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers' website

August 14, 2020 — Based on data gathered from primary elections, experts at a Thursday webinar hosted by CQ Roll Call predicted that Democrats would strengthen their hold on the House and flip the majority in the Senate, and that Joe Biden would win the 2020 presidential election.

Americans are currently seeing party dynamics, likely to guide the outcome of the presidential election, play out across the country in state and district elections. At this time next week, only five states will have yet to hold their primaries.

“I expect it to be close, but expect Democrats to prevail,” said Nathan Gonzales, an election analyst for CQ Roll Call. “There is universal agreement — the data is pointing in one direction.”

“Even Democrats in districts that people assumed would be the most vulnerable at the beginning of the cycle are in a position where they could very well win their races,” said Stephanie Akin, a journalist at CQ Roll Call.  

According to the panelists, Democrats are more than likely to gain control of the Senate, as they only need a net gain of three or four seats to do so. Furthermore, eight of the 10 most vulnerable seats in the Senate are currently held by Republicans.

Panelists predicted that House Democrats would see an increase in seats, and that Republicans would likely sink deeper into the minority.

Republicans would need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority in the House.

According to Gonzales, President Donald Trump is currently underperforming his 2016 totals by 8 to 10 points or more around the country, and dozens of Republicans, previously regarded as safe for reelection, are potentially vulnerable of losing their seats.

The federal response to the pandemic has caused the president’s approval rating to drop significantly, and panelists further equated Trump’s downfall to his response to protests against racial injustice.

These actions, among others, resulted in the president losing the support of suburban Republican voters, panelists said.

“It’s surprising, given the climate and Trump’s approval rating, that Trump loyalty continues to be a primary strategy utilized,” Akin said.

However, the strategy has worked for some, resulting in QAnon conspiracy theorist Marjorie Taylor Greene winning Georgia’s 14th District.

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Congress

Former FCC Commissioners Reflect on Changes Since 1996 Telecommunications Act

Tim White

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on

Former Federal Communications Commissioner Mike O'Rielly on the webinar

August 14, 2020 — Based on data gathered from primary elections, experts at a Thursday webinar hosted by CQ Roll Call predicted that Democrats would strengthen their hold on the House and flip the majority in the Senate, and that Joe Biden would win the 2020 presidential election.

Americans are currently seeing party dynamics, likely to guide the outcome of the presidential election, play out across the country in state and district elections. At this time next week, only five states will have yet to hold their primaries.

“I expect it to be close, but expect Democrats to prevail,” said Nathan Gonzales, an election analyst for CQ Roll Call. “There is universal agreement — the data is pointing in one direction.”

“Even Democrats in districts that people assumed would be the most vulnerable at the beginning of the cycle are in a position where they could very well win their races,” said Stephanie Akin, a journalist at CQ Roll Call.  

According to the panelists, Democrats are more than likely to gain control of the Senate, as they only need a net gain of three or four seats to do so. Furthermore, eight of the 10 most vulnerable seats in the Senate are currently held by Republicans.

Panelists predicted that House Democrats would see an increase in seats, and that Republicans would likely sink deeper into the minority.

Republicans would need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority in the House.

According to Gonzales, President Donald Trump is currently underperforming his 2016 totals by 8 to 10 points or more around the country, and dozens of Republicans, previously regarded as safe for reelection, are potentially vulnerable of losing their seats.

The federal response to the pandemic has caused the president’s approval rating to drop significantly, and panelists further equated Trump’s downfall to his response to protests against racial injustice.

These actions, among others, resulted in the president losing the support of suburban Republican voters, panelists said.

“It’s surprising, given the climate and Trump’s approval rating, that Trump loyalty continues to be a primary strategy utilized,” Akin said.

However, the strategy has worked for some, resulting in QAnon conspiracy theorist Marjorie Taylor Greene winning Georgia’s 14th District.

Continue Reading

House of Representatives

Emphasis on Combating COVID-19 and Rebuilding Infrastructure at First Energy and Commerce Meeting

Derek Shumway

Published

on

Photo of Rep. Frank Pallone, Jr., Chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, by Bonnie Cash used with permission

August 14, 2020 — Based on data gathered from primary elections, experts at a Thursday webinar hosted by CQ Roll Call predicted that Democrats would strengthen their hold on the House and flip the majority in the Senate, and that Joe Biden would win the 2020 presidential election.

Americans are currently seeing party dynamics, likely to guide the outcome of the presidential election, play out across the country in state and district elections. At this time next week, only five states will have yet to hold their primaries.

“I expect it to be close, but expect Democrats to prevail,” said Nathan Gonzales, an election analyst for CQ Roll Call. “There is universal agreement — the data is pointing in one direction.”

“Even Democrats in districts that people assumed would be the most vulnerable at the beginning of the cycle are in a position where they could very well win their races,” said Stephanie Akin, a journalist at CQ Roll Call.  

According to the panelists, Democrats are more than likely to gain control of the Senate, as they only need a net gain of three or four seats to do so. Furthermore, eight of the 10 most vulnerable seats in the Senate are currently held by Republicans.

Panelists predicted that House Democrats would see an increase in seats, and that Republicans would likely sink deeper into the minority.

Republicans would need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority in the House.

According to Gonzales, President Donald Trump is currently underperforming his 2016 totals by 8 to 10 points or more around the country, and dozens of Republicans, previously regarded as safe for reelection, are potentially vulnerable of losing their seats.

The federal response to the pandemic has caused the president’s approval rating to drop significantly, and panelists further equated Trump’s downfall to his response to protests against racial injustice.

These actions, among others, resulted in the president losing the support of suburban Republican voters, panelists said.

“It’s surprising, given the climate and Trump’s approval rating, that Trump loyalty continues to be a primary strategy utilized,” Akin said.

However, the strategy has worked for some, resulting in QAnon conspiracy theorist Marjorie Taylor Greene winning Georgia’s 14th District.

Continue Reading

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