Expert Opinion
Yoni Mazor: Three Amazon and Supply Chain Predictions for 2022
The omicron variant could spell trouble for the supply chain in 2022.

With a hectic 2021 over, it’s a good opportunity to explore 3 Amazon and supply chain predictions for 2022.
Heading into 2022, the world will also be marking the entrance to the third year of recovering from COVID-19 and its effects. At the beginning of 2020, the world was shaken up by the eruption of the pandemic and its spread from Asia all over the world. The challenges of the pandemic for the global economy have been significant; here are 3 predictions for how things might look in 2022.
1. Global supply chain
The global economy will probably continue to struggle due to the challenges of constant interruptions in the global supply chain. The new omicron variant, which proves to be highly contagious as it spreads at record-breaking speed, has already placed numerous countries around the world under travel, work and movement restrictions.
The limitations that omicron has imposed on these countries will add another layer of complexity to the interruptions to the global supply chain during the first quarter. It will be compounded by the strain that omicron will place on the workforce itself.
The costs of shipping inventory and supplies around the world rose sharply during 2021 and are currently cooling off a bit from the surge. Until the appearance of the new omicron variant, it was expected that costs would continue to cool down during the year at a moderate pace, however, such predictions are volatile as omicron is causing the same type of interruptions and price spikes that caused the whole global supply chain to reach this point.
Some of the main strains on the global supply chain that are expected to continue into 2022 are semiconductor supply shortages, shortages in container shipping, and shortages in professional labor for transportation carriers and at seaports. The rising costs of transportation, labor, and energy are challenging the global supply chain while also impacting financial institutions and governments all over the world. The reason: rising costs are another way to describe the next point of our predictions, inflation.
2. Inflation
Most of the current generation in the United States are not familiar with the meaning and challenges of inflation. The last era of significant inflation was in the early 80s when Ronald Reagan was president. Many economists describe inflation as a wild beast that is very hard to tame, capture and place back in its cage once it breaks loose. Another way to describe inflation is like a pendulum that keeps swinging and raising costs in one direction, that later raises costs in another direction, in an unexpected and disruptive way, and on and on it swings.
The Federal Reserve has kept a low-interest-rate environment for the past decade, and usually during inflationary periods, as prices of everything are rising, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates to help people get more interest on their savings and protect the purchasing power of most households. Nevertheless, inflation during 2021 has already crossed the 6% mark, which is about three times higher than the target of 2% per year usually aimed for by the Fed. Despite that, the Fed has kept interest rates low, and by doing so, it has yet to apply this key tool of raising interest to combat inflation.
There is a bit of challenge for many economists and the Fed to try to distinguish between real inflation of the economy or transitional inflation in the economy due to the effects of the pandemic and the global supply chain challenges. This might explain why the Fed has focused on keeping a low-interest-rate environment, as it is more concerned with battling the pandemic and global supply chain strains than with real inflation striking the economy.
It is not clear how long the Fed will be able to keep its current position if real inflation keeps its momentum and does not slow down. If the effects of the global supply challenges and its inflationary triggers do appear to be cooling off, and real inflation is causing havoc, we can expect the Fed to begin increasing interest rates. The Fed might raise interest rates during the first quarter of the year, or might even stretch into second or third quarters if omicron places further significant strains on the US economy.
3. Amazon
The global pandemic benefited the e-commerce industry and Amazon, the industry juggernaut, when it broke out in early 2020. It accelerated the adoption of shopping online by many consumers in the U.S. by a few good years, as consumers stranded at home could only shop for products they needed online. During 2021 Amazon’s financial results continued to grow at a rate of about 18% year on year, however not as dramatically as the 37% YOY rate in 2020.
As the largest online marketplace in the U.S., Amazon very much reflects the U.S. economy. It likewise gets heavily affected by global supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. If such challenges continue to affect Amazon’s marketplace and its stakeholders, the year 2022 might prove itself as the most challenging yet for Amazon. To add to that, it will be the first full year of not having its founder, Jeff Bezos, as CEO of the company. Andy Jassy took over the role on July 5th, 2021.
Amazon will be facing challenges in the upcoming years from a few main friction points. The first is the U.S. government cracking down on Amazon’s perceived marketplace dominance. The U.S. government will continue to challenge Amazon to oversee that company’s power is neither abusive nor destructive to the economy.
The global supply chain interruptions have challenged Amazon’s sourcing capabilities as well as many of its third-party sellers during 2021. They have all struggled to keep their products in stock on the platform. These supply constraints limit the depth and variety of products on Amazon’s platform with which most consumers are familiar. This trend, in turn, could cause consumers to look for alternatives in other marketplaces if it continues into 2022. One thing is clear about this prediction: third-party Amazon sellers will have to learn the art of Amazon business negotiation to keep their inventory levels in good shape, along with having their cost structures in check.
Another friction point is how inflation is affecting the competitiveness of the products offered on Amazon. It is important to remember that about 60% of Amazon’s marketplace revenue comes from third-party sellers. Most of these third-party sellers are not familiar with, nor equipped to battle inflation. Thus if they raise their prices on the platform during 2022 to adjust to the cost inflation and prices become too expensive compared with other traditional and established retailers, it will affect Amazon’s ability to stay competitive and maintain its growth momentum over other competitors.
Signs of weakness and volatility
The global economy is a marvelous and complex system that connects dots and lines in many unexpected ways. In the past few decades, this system has provided great prosperity to many countries. However, its complexity during a global pandemic is showing signs of weakness and volatility. By examining the status of the global supply, inflation and Amazon in the past year of 2021, we can see how they are all interconnected and affect each other in various ways.
This interconnectivity will determine much of where things are heading for us all during 2022. There is no attempt here to predict the future, but an attempt to examine past events and their effects, and try to assess where it might be all going next.
Yoni Mazor is the chief growth officer and co-founder of GETIDA. He began developing GETIDA after successfully operating a $20 million yearly Amazon business, selling fashion brands internationally. GETIDA specializes in Amazon discrepancy analytics and consulting. By utilizing data visibility technology, GETIDA focuses on discovering and managing financial and inventory-related discrepancies with billions of dollars of transactions managed daily. He previously served in special Navy intelligence. This Expert Opinion is exclusive to Broadband Breakfast.
Broadband Breakfast accepts commentary from informed observers of the broadband scene. Please send pieces to commentary@breakfast.media. The views reflected in Expert Opinion pieces do not necessarily reflect the views of Broadband Breakfast and Breakfast Media LLC.
Cloud
John English: Isolating Last-Mile Service Disruptions in Evolved Cable Networks
The adoption of new technologies presents operators with a plethora of new variables to manage on the user control plane.

Cable operators are increasingly investing in next-generation network infrastructure, including upgrades to support distributed access architecture and fiber to the home.
By bringing this infrastructure closer to subscribers, cable operators are evolving their networks, adopting greater virtualization and redistributing key elements toward the edges. They expect these changes to increase their network’s interoperability and, ultimately, improve the speed and uptime available to subscribers. In turn, cable operators expect these new capabilities will help redefine what services they can offer.
However, these new advanced networks are much more complex than previous generations. By virtualizing or cloudifying functions at the edge, operators risk losing the sort of visibility that is essential to rapidly pinpointing the source of service disruptions – and ensuring their networks are meeting desired performance thresholds for next-gen applications.
The challenge of complexity in virtualized networks
As cable networks evolve, so does their complexity. The adoption of technologies like virtualized Cable Modem Termination Systems (vCMTS) and distributed access architecture presents operators with a plethora of new variables to manage, particularly on the user control plane.
Always-on applications and those applications that are most sensitive to network performance changes, such as video games, AR/VR, and remotely-piloted drones, to name just a few examples, require continuous measurement and monitoring for reliability. But ensuring consistent quality of service under all conditions the network may face is no small feat.
To illustrate, let’s consider how cable operators will manage disruptions in a virtualized environment. When issues inevitably pop up, will they be able to isolate the problem virtually, or will they need to dispatch a technician to investigate? Additionally, once a technician is onsite, will they have advanced intelligence to determine if the source of the problem is hardware or software-related?
Or will they need to update or replace multiple systems (e.g., consumer premesis equipment, optical network terminals, router, modem, etc.) to try to resolve the problem? Finally, will they need to also investigate additional network termination points if that doesn’t do the trick?
Indeed, each time a truck or technician is dispatched represents a significant outpouring of resources, and adopting a trial-and-error, process-of-elimination approach to resolution is a costly means of restoring service that cable operators cannot afford at scale. Likewise, the customers that depend the most on constant network availability and performance for various uses, such as content distribution networks, transportation services, and industrial manufacturers, won’t tolerate significant disruptions for long.
Packet monitoring for rapid resolution of last-mile disruptions
In the evolving landscape of cable networks, where downtime can lead to customer dissatisfaction, churn, and revenue loss, rapid resolution of last-mile service disruptions is paramount. Cable operators need more advanced network telemetry to understand where – and why – disruptions are occurring. In short, evolved networks require evolved monitoring. This starts with deep packet inspection at scale.
Packets don’t lie, so they offer an excellent barometer into the health of both the control and user planes. Additionally, they can help determine last-mile & core latency per subscriber, as well as by dimension, so operators can test how different configurations affect performance.
Additionally, in the event of a major service disruption, packet monitoring at the edge enables operators to accurately measure how many subscribers are out of service – regardless of whatever hardware or software they’re using – and determine if there’s a common reason for mass outages to help technicians resolve any problems faster. Finally, proactive monitoring, especially when combined with artificial intelligence, empowers operators to detect and address potential issues before they impact subscribers.≠
All in all, cable operators are navigating a challenging yet exciting era of network evolution. The transition to advanced infrastructure and the demand for high-quality, low-latency services necessitate sophisticated monitoring and diagnostic tools. Deep packet inspection technology will continue to play a pivotal role in ensuring the smooth operation of evolved cable networks.
Additionally, in the quest to maintain the quality of service expected by subscribers, operators must abandon the costly process-of-elimination approach and adopt rapid resolution techniques. By doing so, they will not only reduce service disruption but also make more efficient use of resources, ultimately benefiting both their bottom line and the end user’s experience. Evolved cable networks require evolved strategies, and rapid issue isolation through advanced monitoring must be at the forefront of this transformation.
John English is Director of Service Provider Marketing and Business Development at Netscout’s Service Provider unit. He has an extensive background in telecom, including a decade at a major communications service provider and numerous OEMs and ecosystem partners. English is an expert on how communications service providers can successfully implement new technologies like 5G and virtualization/cloudification while continually assuring the performance of their networks and services. This piece is exclusive to Broadband Breakfast.
Broadband Breakfast accepts commentary from informed observers of the broadband scene. Please send pieces to commentary@breakfast.media. The views expressed in Expert Opinion pieces do not necessarily reflect the views of Broadband Breakfast and Breakfast Media LLC.
Expert Opinion
Ted Hearn: Is a Ban on Cable and Satellite ‘Junk Fees’ Rate Regulation?
The Federal Communications Commission says no.

The Federal Communications Commission could have a legal problem on its hands, but agency lawyers seem to have crafted what appears to be an acceptable workaround: Don’t call a ban on certain cable and satellite TV billing fees rate regulation – call it consumer protection.
At its Dec. 13 open meeting, FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel is planning to launch a rulemaking designed to bar cable and satellite TV providers from collecting early termination fees and billing cycle fees – even though the agency receives just hundreds of informal complaints about these fees annually. The U.S. has 53.3 million cable and satellite TV subscribers combined, down 15.7 million since January 2021.
Although the FCC says a ban on these fees has nothing to do with rate regulation, the agency is likely to face strong rebuttal on this point – if not from NCTAitv, the trade association for large cable TV operators, then at least from Charter Communications. Charter invoked impermissible rate regulation in its court fight against a billing cycle fee ban adopted by the state of Maine in 2020 that remains in effect.
In seeking U.S. Supreme Court review of its loss below, Charter was emphatic that Maine’s billing cycle fee statute embraced prohibited price regulation by requiring partial-month refunds.
“Maine’s law … caps Charter’s rates during the final month of service and precludes Charter from charging either for the full month, or a daily rate higher than its standard monthly rate. That is rate regulation, pure and simple,” Charter said last year in a brief with the high court. The Supreme Court declined to take the case, handing victory to Maine.
An early termination fee is collected when a customer cancels service prior to the expiration of an existing service contract, which can run as long as 24 months. A billing cycle fee involves denial of pro rata refunds when customers cancel before the end of the month. Echoing President Biden, Rosenworcel blasted ETFs and BCFs as “junk fees” that penalize consumers and impede competition.
If all goes according to plan, the FCC will adopt new junk fees rules in 2024. The FCC has floated an exemption for small or rural cable TV operators, but it put the onus on these entities to justify any special treatment.
The FCC’s crackdown on ETFs and BCFs would run counter to the agency’s bipartisan light-touch approach to cable TV regulation that began more than two decades ago. By law, the FCC in 1999 had to cease regulating the price of cable’s expanded basic tier, a service level which typically includes ESPN, C-SPAN, CNBC, and Fox News.
In 2015, the FCC stripped away the last layer of cable rate regulation. The agency, led at that time by Chairman Tom Wheeler, an Obama appointee, held that every cable operator in the country was subject to “effective competition.” That prevented local governments from continuing to regulate cable’s basic tier – the traditional home of local TV stations and public access channels. Rosenworcel, then an FCC Commissioner, voted against the Wheeler plan as going too far.
Rosenworcel is evidently not planning on letting the agency’s long legacy of cable deregulation to prevent her from pivoting in the opposite direction.
Sprinkled throughout the FCC’s junk fees ban proposal are references to recent court cases holding that BCFs are not rate regulation preempted by federal law, but rather consumer protection measures that states are permitted to adopt and enforce. The FCC said the logic used by the courts in upholding state BCFs applies just as well to a would-be ETF ban.
The FCC said its authority to ban ETFs and BCFs on cable is contained in the 1992 Cable Act, saying it provides for the agency to protect “consumers against … poor customer service” and “establish standards by which cable operators may fulfill their customer service requirements.”
Whether past FCC cable deregulation steps would prevent a junk fees ban, the FCC concluded: “The applicability of ETF and BCF regulations are not affected by the existence of effective competition in a community.”
DBS providers Dish and DirecTV will probably have an easier time than cable in getting a junk fees ban struck down in court.
Since their arrival in the mid-1990s, Dish and DirectTV have never been price regulated at the state or federal level or subject to any form of cable-like specific customer service obligations adopted by the FCC.
Still, the FCC is confident regarding its power to act, asserting that it retains “exclusive jurisdiction to regulate the provision of direct-to-home satellite services” and authority to impose “public interest or other requirements for providing video programming” on DBS.
In a final rationale left undeveloped, the FCC said a junk fees ban exemption for Dish and DirecTV would be inappropriate because it would allow the DBS providers to gain “a competitive advantage over their competitors through the use of ETFs and BCFs.”
The FCC failed to explain how DBS reliance on junk fees deemed unlawful for cable could be an effective tool at keeping customers or attracting new ones while Dish and DirecTV bled nearly 700,000 subscribers in the most recent quarter.
Maybe FCC lawyers don’t have it all figured out after all.
Ted Hearn is the Editor of Policyband, a new website dedicated to comprehensive coverage of the broadband communications market. A former communications executive and reporter for newsletters and trade journals, Hearn has decades of experience with traditional video and broadband industry trends, regulatory developments, technology advancements, and market dynamics. This piece is exclusive to Broadband Breakfast.
Broadband Breakfast accepts commentary from informed observers of the broadband scene. Please send pieces to commentary@breakfast.media. The views expressed in Expert Opinion pieces do not necessarily reflect the views of Broadband Breakfast and Breakfast Media LLC.
Expert Opinion
Kate Forscey: National Security and Global Success Depend Upon Prioritizing Telecom Funding
The Affordable Connectivity Program and the Rip-and-Replace program are both central funding needs for the industry.

With the government now funded into the new year, it’s time for Congress to take another look at its broader priorities, especially when it comes to the race with China for dominance in next-generation technologies. Whether it’s AI or cloud computing or virtual reality, if the United States is to remain competitive, we need to make secure and effective communications a priority. This means finally connecting all Americans to high-speed broadband and ensuring that our connectivity cannot be undermined by foreign adversaries.
Two popular programs are central to this goal: the Affordable Connectivity Program and the Rip-and-Replace program. Both of these programs have tremendous bipartisan, bicameral support; but both have been underfunded and now risk dying on the vine. Congress has the opportunity to fully fund these programs if it has the will to do so.
Let’s break it down.
The Affordable Connectivity Program provides low-income American families and veterans with discounts on Internet service and connectivity equipment, including higher discounts for those living on Tribal lands. With affordable broadband, more Americans can get online and be a part of the digital economy.
The ACP has been wildly successful, connecting over 21 million households to essential broadband they could otherwise not afford. And it continues to garner widespread support, with the vast majority of voters (78%) calling for its extension, including 64% of Republicans, 70% of Independents, and 95% of Democrats.
Congress provided the ACP with $14.2 billion in 2021—but funding is now running low and is projected to be fully exhausted by spring 2024. Governors, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, public interest groups, and Internet service providers are all raising the alarm about its imminent depletion. That’s why the Biden Administration in October called on Congress to replenish the program’s coffers with an additional $6 billion.
A good start, but not the whole story. Our foreign adversaries are well known for their espionage, and while a spy balloon might get the attention, a far more insidious problem lurks in our communications networks: equipment designed and produced by Chinese suppliers Huawei and ZTE. A bipartisan Congress passed the Secure and Trusted Networks Act to eradicate national security threats such as these, but sufficient funding for the Rip and Replace program has never materialized.
Again, the Biden Administration has stepped up and identified a need for $3.1 billion to fully fund the program as a “key national security priority” in its emergency supplemental funding request. It’s a narrative we can all get on-board with: that broadband falls under the umbrella of national security as a whole. American consumers and institutions both benefit from American-built networks and increased protection at home. But communications providers can’t live up to these needs on their own.
As it stands, the responsibility to get affordable, secure connectivity programs across the finish line rests with Congress. Even with a consensus of support for these two programs, the devil is in the details of how to make the price tags palatable to enough policymakers on Capitol Hill. The key is ensuring that any changes preserve the widespread efficacy of the program that has made it popular so far.
For example, Congress could cut the cost of the ACP by limiting the additional Tribal funding to rural Tribal lands. Any such change should be grounded in an evaluation of existing need in urban areas, but could be an opportunity to ensure funds are being directed to areas of greatest need. And Congress should consider indexing the ACP to inflation. The high inflation of recent years has wreaked havoc on the budgets of consumers—and inflation-proofing the program would ensure that broadband remains affordable for all Americans even should inflation come back.
As for Rip-and-Replace, those of us urging for more funds could concede putting safeguards in place to ensure the money is being used for its intended purpose – the kind of compromise needed to get such policies across the finish line
These are just some ideas as we head into the final funding fight. Not everyone is going to be on the same page on what is and isn’t working best, but shared success starts by recognizing that we all have the same endgame. Congress must ensure that adequate funding for the ACP and Rip and Replace program are included in any year-end spending package. We have an all-too-rare opportunity to win the race for high-tech dominance—we just need to provide the resources.
Kate Forscey is a contributing fellow for the Digital Progress Institute and principal and founder of KRF Strategies LLC. She has served as senior technology policy advisor for Congresswoman Anna G. Eshoo and policy counsel at Public Knowledge. This piece is exclusive to Broadband Breakfast.
Broadband Breakfast accepts commentary from informed observers of the broadband scene. Please send pieces to commentary@breakfast.media. The views expressed in Expert Opinion pieces do not necessarily reflect the views of Broadband Breakfast and Breakfast Media LLC.
-
Fiber2 weeks ago
The High Cost of Fiber is Leading States to Explore Other Technologies
-
Broadband Mapping & Data4 weeks ago
FCC is Looking to Update its Definition of Broadband
-
Broadband Roundup4 weeks ago
Emergency Connectivity Funding, Comcast in Connecticut, Glo Fiber in Pennsylvania
-
FCC3 weeks ago
‘It Was Graft’: How the FCC’s CAF II Program Became a Money Sink
-
Expert Opinion2 weeks ago
Ryan Johnston: What Happens to BEAD Without the Affordable Connectivity Program?
-
Funding2 weeks ago
NTIA Confirms Licensed-by-Rule May Apply for BEAD Funding
-
Digital Inclusion2 weeks ago
Federal Officials Agree: Infrastructure Alone Will Not Close the Digital Divide
-
Cybersecurity4 weeks ago
Cybersecurity Requirements in BEAD Could Shape Internet Security Regulation More Widely