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# KeyBanc Sees Charter Losing More Than 3 Million Internet Subscribers by 2028
- URL: https://broadbandbreakfast.com/keybanc-sees-charter-losing-more-than-3-million-internet-subscribers-by-2028/
- Published: 2026-11-03T21:47:01.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-03T22:47:03.000Z
- Description: The competing forecasts highlight uncertainty surrounding Charter’s financial outlook
- Author: Kate Keith
- Tags: Internet, #with-siderail, Charter Communications, Keybanc Capital Markets, Cox Communications, Brandon Nispel

WASHINGTON Nov. 3, 2026 — Charter Communications could lose more than 3 million internet subscribers by 2028 as it faces growing competition and works to integrate Cox Communications, according to a new analysis from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

The investment bank projects [Charter will lose approximately 973,000 internet subscribers in 2026](https://broadbandbreakfast.com/charter-reports-weak-second-quarter-dropping-172-000-broadband-customers/), 1.15 million in 2027 and another 1.04 million in 2028\. Combined, those projections amount to more than 3.1 million net losses over the period. Charter is [the largest U.S. ISP with 34.5 million broadband subscribers](https://ir.charter.com/static-files/5f3a8bcb-435e-4a8a-8173-d7ad4631ba39?ref=broadbandbreakfast.com).

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KeyBanc analyst **Brandon Nispel** said both Charter's legacy business and the newly acquired Cox operations face [mounting pressure from fiber and fixed wireless competition](https://broadbandbreakfast.com/charter-pushing-bundles-to-compete-with-fixed-wireless/). The firm remains cautious on Charter, maintaining its underweight rating and arguing that the company's underlying business performance needs to improve before it becomes more optimistic.

Charter completed its acquisition of Cox Communications in August, creating a larger broadband provider with operations spanning 45 states. The deal also brought additional debt and the challenge of combining two businesses with different subscriber and pricing trends.

KeyBanc estimates Charter will carry approximately $110 billion in net debt following the transaction. It also expects the combined company to generate roughly $5 billion in free cash flow in 2027 and $7.8 billion in 2028 as capital spending declines.

However, Nispel warned that[ Cox's declining financial performance could offset Charter's expected cost savings](https://broadbandbreakfast.com/spectrum-pulling-cox-from-rural-digital-opportunity-fund/). Charter had targeted at least $800 million in expense synergies from the transaction, but KeyBanc believes those savings could effectively disappear as subscriber losses, pricing changes and additional marketing expenses weigh on the business.

Cox's internet customers also pay considerably more on average than Charter's legacy customers. KeyBanc estimates Cox's monthly internet revenue per subscriber at approximately $86, compared with roughly $70 for legacy Charter. [It expects that difference to narrow as Charter introduces its Spectrum pricing](https://broadbandbreakfast.com/charter-offering-its-spectrum-plans-to-cox-customers/) and packaging to former Cox markets.

[Charter is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 ](https://corporate.charter.com/newsroom/charter-to-hold-webcast-to-discuss-third-quarter-2026-financial-and-operating-results?ref=broadbandbreakfast.com)financial results Friday, Nov. 6, with a conference call beginning at 8:30 a.m. ET. The company is expected to discuss its financial and operating performance for the quarter ended Sept.30.

The results will offer an early look at Charter's performance following the Cox acquisition and could provide additional insight into subscriber trends, integration costs and the company's plans to manage its debt.

A [separate analysis from New Street Research ](https://slack-files.com/files-pri-safe/T02JN31JJ0P-F0CEMTJSJ6Q/nsr-charter-pro-forma-model.pdf?c=1793739488-d6fc0736071a8f3e&ref=broadbandbreakfast.com)offers a more optimistic outlook for the acquisition's cost savings. The firm estimates Charter could generate approximately $1.2 billion in operating cost synergies by 2029, exceeding management's target of more than $1 billion. New Street expects the combined company's EBITDA to decline 1.8 percent annually before synergies, but only 0.6 percent after accounting for the savings. It also projects free cash flow will rise from approximately $4.7 billion in 2026 to $8.5 billion in 2028 as capital spending declines.

KeyBanc estimates Charter will generate approximately $64.5 billion in revenue in 2027, up from its projected $58.6 billion in 2026\. Despite that growth, the firm said it needs to see a change in the company's underlying business trajectory before taking a more favorable view of the stock.