Comcast Forecasting 100K Broadband Subscriber Losses in Q4

WASHINGTON, Dec. 9, 2024 – Comcast expects to report more than 100,000 broadband subscriber losses in the fourth quarter, a top executive said Monday.

The forecast, which caught Wall Street off guard, reflected competitive pressure the cable industry has been facing from fixed wireless broadband by the major mobile carriers and from fiber ISPs encroaching on their markets. Comcast stock dropped more than 9 percent this morning.

The broadband market “remains competitively intense,” Comcast Cable President and CEO Dave Watson said. “That has not changed, it’s been pretty consistent throughout the year. In particular in the more price-conscious end of the marketplace.”

If actual losses hit 100,000, it would be 66,000 more subscribers than the company lost in the same period last year. Comcast is the largest broadband provider in the country, with nearly 32 million subscribers in total.

In the third quarter, when Comcast lost 87,000 subscribers, executives said the company would have returned to positive subscriber growth if not for low-income customers leaving or being unable to pay after the expiration of a major broadband subsidy. 

Watson said the relatively promising third quarter numbers were partly due to one-off or seasonal factors – a marketing push with the Olympics, students going back to school, and a month-long strike at competitor AT&T.

Watson also pointed to Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which devastated the Southeast in late September and early October. He said the company estimated those storms contributed to about 10,000 broadband subscriber losses.

“So when you have all these things together,” Watson said, “we should be looking at a broadband subscriber loss in Q4 of just over 100,000.” He spoke at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference in New York.

The 100,000 number is more losses than Wall Street had been expecting, according to New Street Research. Analysts had as of a month ago been forecasting about 73,000 losses, but New Street noted there was a lack of certainty because of the storms. 

The cable industry has been hemorrhaging subscribers as customers flock to fixed wireless broadband in particular. Analysts expected that to ease up after fixed wireless adds showed signs of leveling off last quarter.