New Street: NTIA Caps Might Not Affect Many Locations Nationally

WASHINGTON, Sept. 26, 2025 – The Trump administration’s effort to further push down spending under the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment program might not affect many locations nationwide.

According to an analysis from New Street Research, new state-specific cost caps could reduce spending by more than $2 billion, but so far would only affect about 130,000 locations out of roughly 3 million.

The caps, based on deployment costs projected by National Telecommunications and Information Administration cost models, are being used by the agency to revise state spending plans and reduce grant awards before giving its final approval and allowing money to flow. Cost savings have been a chief goal of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and NTIA Administrator Arielle Roth for the $42.45 billion program.

People familiar with the process told Broadband Breakfast this month that project areas – geographic units ISPs bid on – with a per-location cost above the 65th percentile in NTIA’s model would require written justification, those above the 85th percentile would have to be negotiated down to the 85th percentile cost, and those above the 85th percentile price plus another 15 percent of that price could ultimately be awarded to a lower bidder. The Minnesota broadband office confirmed that process in a stakeholder email Wednesday, and the Community Broadband Action Network confirmed last week it was happening in Iowa.

“Based on our estimates, for the states that have reported their proposals so far and whose price caps are known, we estimate that 129k locations or 5% of total locations fall above the [85th percentile] price caps,” New Street analyst Vikash Harlalka wrote in a Friday investor note. “These locations account for $2.3BN in funding which represents 17% of total funding allocated so far. If we assume that all locations are above the price caps revert to the price caps, the BEAD funding would fall from $14.1BN to $13.3BN, or from 46% to 44% of allocated funds.”

The firm didn’t try projecting how many of the locations above the highest price cap would ultimately be awarded to another provider, which could drive the spending down further depending on how frequently it happens. The analysis also didn't include Alabama, Wisconsin, or New Mexico because of data issues.

The biggest impact could be in Rhode Island, where New Street found more than 55 percent of the state’s locations were above the 85th percentile cap. In most states, including large, western ones like Arizona and Nevada, fewer than 10 percent of their locations would be affected by the cap.

The caps, reportedly leaked from NTIA, were posted on Broadband.io by Doug Adams, head of marketing firm Broadband Marketers. Those numbers have lined up with what Minnesota and CBAN described.

Now 47 states have published draft plans. Texas and California received deadline extensions to submit their plans – states submit one week after publishing for public comment – and will turn them in to NTIA Oct. 27 and Nov. 2 respectively. It’s not clear when Florida, the other remaining state, will publish its plan. 

Alaska, Utah publish plans

Alaska had previously disclosed tentative grant winners, but published location-level data on Thursday night.

In the state, 53.25 percent of its 44,764 funded locations are in line for fiber. Another 33.3 percent would get low-earth orbit satellite service from SpaceX, and the remaining 13.4 percent would get fixed wireless.

The state would spend $776.8 million on the projects, about 77.7% percent of its $1 billion BEAD allocation.

Utah also published its draft plan Friday, but didn’t include the data submissions. Broadband Breakfast asked for the files and will update this story if the state provides them.

Utah’s broadband office said it had tentatively awarded funds to 25 ISPs to deploy broadband to all of its 31,716 eligible locations. The state didn’t say how much of its $317 million allocation from NTIA in June, 2023 would be spent under the draft plan.

Nationally, awards are still leaning toward fiber, despite a Trump administration rule change eliminating a categorical preference for the technology. About 67 percent of BEAD locations would be served by the technology under the tentative awards, with low Earth orbit satellite Internet service taking about 20 percent.