2030 Wireless vs. 2030 Fiber: The Future in Broadband Speed and Throughput
There is a new investment trend aimed at the never-ending desire to make broadband wireless and satellite delivery faster.
Jimmy Schaeffler
Because broadband throughputs and speeds – meaning how much data the system is capable of carrying, and how quickly data is actually delivered, respectively – are constantly changing (and consistently improving), tracking those two vital metrics is critical to the future of both enterprise planning and governmental policymaking. To say nothing of the future of reliable consumer broadband. Moreover, understanding those two “capability” benchmarks is critical to future debt and equity investments in the sector called broadband telecom.
Broadband in limbo
Before it made its all-critical decisions in May 2022, one wonders if a realistic determination of the future of those throughput and speed dynamics was made by the Biden Administration. That U.S. Commerce Department determination was the first implementation of Congress’ $43 bil. Broadband Equity Access and Deployment Infrastructure Funding, intended to grow Internet into every corner of the United States.
Measuring Fixed Wireless Innovations 2025-2030 : Examples As of Q1 2025 (Vol. 1.0)
| WIRELESS INNOVATIONS REVIEWED | Form | Format | Description | Examples of Key Entities Involved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spectrum Use | Sharing + using higher frequencies | Millimeter Wave (mmWave); Ultra-Wideband; Massive MIMO | Developing and making larger swaths of government-controlled frequencies available for shared use. | U.S. Government (e.g., FCC, NTIA) + Civilian and Commercial Users + Trade Groups |
| Network Management | Artificial Intelligence (A-I) + Cloud-Based Subscriber Quality of Experience (QoE) Improvement | Software Systems | Software that uses A-I, including OpenRAN and energy-efficient “Green” technologies, etc. | Preseem (Aterlo), DISH Network/EchoStar/Boost, Netgear, Ruckus |
| Hardware + Software Implementation | Holographic Beamforming + Phased Array Antennas | Antenna Development | Creations to increase network efficiency and connectivity, e.g., holographic beamforming, phased array antennas. | Cambium, Qualcomm, Sierra Wireless, Atmosic, InnoPhase, Wiliot, Tarana, Siklu, Plume, Google Nest |
| Small Cell Networks | Micro-cellular | Portable Cell Towers; “Street Furniture” (e.g., lampposts) | Includes microcell cloud operating innovations. | Nokia, Qualcomm, Airpsan, Commscope, Celona, Crown Castle, Alpha Wireless, Qucell Networks |
| Integrated (or Hybrid) Networks | FWA and Fiber + Satellite and 5G | Ground and Space + Fiber and FWA Infrastructures | Strong fiber backhaul plus FWA for remote or cost-prohibitive areas. | Most WISPA operators and their vendors |
| “What’s Truly New?” Technology | To Be Developed (TBD) | A-I and TBD | Innovations extending capacity, improving robustness, or circumventing physical obstacles. | Alphabet’s X (Taara), Project Kuiper, SpaceX, 6G, Wi-Fi 7, 8G + 10G Research, Quantum Tech |
Source and Copyright Notice
Sources: Fred Goldstein and Interisle Consulting Group, LLC; Jonathan Chaplin and New Street Research; Craig Moffett and Moffett-Nathanson; Wireless Internet Service Providers Assn. (WISPA); online research; surveys; and numerous executive interviews. Copyright 2025. Property of The Carmel Group. All Rights Reserved. Any unauthorized distribution or use is prohibited.
Apparently not believing bandwidth carried via fixed and cellular/mobile wireless – and even via satellite – devices would ever be worthy of comparison to gigabit-level fiber deliveries, up-front the National Telecommunications Information Administration dubbed unlicensed Fixed Wireless Access and others “unreliable.” As a result, in essence, that label suggested to the world that FWA could not deliver the Internet to Americans, because FWA had neither the throughput nor speed to capably perform. Importantly, that determination was probably not true. Just the short-term cost of this impetuous Executive Branch ruling has been and will likely be in the billions of dollars.
Future wireless innovations
Notes Richard Bernhardt, the Vice President of Spectrum Policy and Industry for the Washington, DC-based Wireless Internet Service Providers Assn., “Our industry’s operators and vendors are amplifying the efficacy of bands, by deploying technologies which maximize the features, functions, and potential for spectrum. In tandem with those advances, we’re expecting parallels in equipment innovation that allow the highest and best use cases.”
These half dozen technologies described in The Carmel Group chart below each recommend further re-evaluation of this “FWA is unreliable (and not capable)” moniker. They also likely point to a whole new trend of investment aimed at the never-ending desire to make broadband wireless and satellite delivery faster and more capable. Moreover, at least with FWA and the ground segment of LEOs, more “installable” than fiber. Especially for broadband industry stakeholders, these examples of future developments are important to follow from an economic,
investment, and marketing POV, as well as from a political vantage point.
Who says wireless speeds might not one day rival those of fiber? (Or even if not equal, still be capable in 95+% (or more?) of all scenarios, of offering more-than-ample bandwidth for everyone, and for every use)?
A false 'diamond standard'?
An apt analogy: Metaphorically, very few drivers will ever need a 200-MPH Ferrari costing $200K to drive everywhere they are going, with no speed limit, down an expensively constructed six-lane, concrete highway. For broadband users, this comparison is especially relevant. It is especially valid if they don’t have – and if their governments and those taxpayers can’t manage the kind of spending needed for luxurious fiber-only or fiber-dominant systems, including monthly fiber broadband bills that are often way short on user-value-for-the-user-buck.
After all, isn’t that the real point in a “reasonable” fiber vs. wireless head-to-head analysis and build-out?
Posits Boston, Mass.-based wireless technical guru, Fred Goldstein, head of the telecom consulting firm Interisle Consulting Group, LLC, “Fiber and wireless both have their place. Especially wireless is now seeing more innovation in last-mile capabilities, for example, and that makes it a good choice in many areas. Both fiber and wireless are, frankly, now capable of exceeding most customers’ needs. All the while, FWA is capable of faster and cheaper targeted deployment.”
Jimmy Schaeffler is the chairman and chief service officer of The Carmel Group, based in Scottsdale, Ariz. For more than three decades, he has researched, analyzed, and written about telecom, especially pay TV, broadcast, and new digital media, on both the software and hardware sides of the business. This Expert Opinion is exclusive to Broadband Breakfast.
Broadband Breakfast accepts commentary from informed observers of the broadband scene. Please send pieces to commentary@breakfast.media. The views expressed in Expert Opinion pieces do not necessarily reflect the views of Broadband Breakfast and Breakfast Media LLC.
