BEAD Satellite Locations Could Drop 35-42%, Analysts Say
NTIA is asking states to remove locations based on new broadband mapping data
WASHINGTON, July 16, 2026 – The Commerce Department is asking states to remove locations from satellite broadband grant awards if they’re already listed as served under the government’s broadband coverage data.
That could result in anywhere from 35 percent to 42 percent of satellite locations in the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment program becoming ineligible, according to a new analysis.
New York Law School researchers Alex Karras and Michael Santorelli estimated in their Thursday report that would mean reducing satellite BEAD grants by about $354 million to $423 million.
That would leave $671 million or $602 million remaining, down from more than $1 billion.
Commerce’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration asked states to remove locations from their low-Earth orbit satellite awards, some of which are already under contract, for one of two reasons.
Either the locations were shown not to be broadband-serviceable, something like a shed or barn, or they were marked as served under Federal Communications Commission coverage data.
Before the revision, the researchers counted 900,000 LEO locations, about 24 percent of the program’s 4 million locations. Those are all going to either SpaceX or Amazon LEO.
A ninth version of the location fabric, which determines what is a broadband-serviceable location (BSL), was recently released and used for the NTIA’s analysis according to an agency official.
Karras and Santorelli’s analysis used the most recent public FCC coverage data, from December 2025 ISP filings, but they said that if NTIA was using the recently submitted (but not yet public) June 30 filings, the reduction in locations would be even greater.
Using the latest public data, the researchers found at least 35 percent of the locations awarded to LEO operators under BEAD plans are either not BSLs or are now served by a terrestrial provider.
If NTIA were to remove LEO locations marked as served by fixed wireless using unlicensed spectrum, that number jumped to 42 percent.
States can also dispute the agency's request, so it's possible not every location marked by NTIA will be made ineligible. States ran their own broadband data challenge processes in 2024, and in some cases they consider a location to lack broadband that's marked on FCC maps as served.
An NTIA spokesperson didn't directly answer questions about the agency's methodology, but said the following in an email:
“NTIA shared updated FCC data with states as part of our commitment to due diligence and fiscal responsibility. The FCC’s latest Broadband Serviceable Location Fabric identifies locations that are not broadband serviceable — such as open fields or hay bales mistakenly identified as homes — or that may already be served. NTIA’s goal is to ensure BEAD funds are targeted to eligible locations and are not used where program support is unnecessary. For locations depicted as served by another provider, NTIA is empowering states to exercise their local judgment, as states are best positioned to assess on-the-ground conditions. This approach is consistent with NTIA’s May 2026 FAQs.”
Most of the removed locations, Karras and Santorelli found, were already served: 262,000 compared to the 50,500 non-BSLs. An extra 61,500 locations were already served by unlicensed fixed wireless, but again it’s not clear whether NTIA included those in its analysis.
Officials from multiple states said that about half their LEO locations would be ineligible for funding under the NTIA’s request, but the amount varied by state.
The NTIA official said Tuesday that LEO awards were marked for revision because the program is simply reserving capacity for each household, rather than building a physical network. LEO awards are truly location-by-location, so they can be whittled down more than a fiber build.
“All told, BEAD’s runway continues to be very long, which means that there will likely be further refinements to the BEAD map down the line. In short, the longer it takes for BEAD projects to launch, the higher the chances that BEAD-eligible locations might be taken off the board,” Karras and Santorelli wrote.
The agency official said it was possible satellite awards could be altered in the future, and that NTIA would continue to monitor FCC maps.
