Demand Picked Up This Week in AWS-3 Re-Auction
Analysts say proceeds clearing $2.9 billion is looking more and more likely.
WASHINGTON, June 12, 2026 – Demand for AWS-3 spectrum licenses picked up in the second week of the Federal Communications Commission’s first auction in years.
Before bidding began Friday, bids totaled nearly $767 million compared to $95 million one week ago. Of the 200 licenses up for grabs, 190 had more than one bidder while 10 had just one bidder.
That’s compared to 39 licenses with no demand at all the same time last week, and 94 with multiple bidders.
“We think there is a high likelihood that the auction will continue for at least another couple of days,” New Street Research analyst David Barden wrote in a Thursday investor note. “Echostar investors should breathe easier as we think the risk auction proceeds fall below $2.9BN has been defanged.”
If the auction were to fetch less than $2.9 billion, EchoStar would be on the hook for the difference. Dish, owned by EchoStar, handed the licenses back after the FCC found it received small business bidding credits it wasn’t eligible for. Dish had paid $3.4 billion for the licenses and has already paid a $500 million fine toward any shortfall payment.
BNP Paribas analyst Sam McHugh pointed out that demand started to dip Thursday — at one point all licenses had multiple bidders — but said it was happening “much more slowly” than in previous auctions
Based on bidding behavior, he estimated bidders were more eager to fight for licenses than at the same point in previous auctions.
“The amount of excess demand is still higher in this auction than it has been at this stage of any FCC auction for at least the last decade, and probably ever,” he wrote.
As long as the major licenses retain at least two bidders, the auction could clear the $3.4 billion the licenses sold for last time by the end of Tuesday, McHugh wrote.
The auction’s value is highly concentrated in four licenses in New York, Boston, and two Chicago markets, according to analysts. The New York license alone had gone up to $222 million by the end of Thursday’s bidding.
There have been four bidders competing for those most valuable licenses, but that’s dropped to three bidders in all except one of the Chicago markets. Analysts say it’s likely three are the major mobile carriers, who have already deployed spectrum in the band and could easily turn on more.
There was some speculation about whether the fourth bidder was EchoStar — which is looking to sell all of its licenses — trying to drive up prices to avoid a shortfall payment, or SpaceX trying to buy up as much spectrum as possible to compete with the terrestrial carriers.
New Street maintained the view that SpaceX isn’t likely to be bidding. Barden noted that the spectrum up for grabs in the 2027 upper C-band auction has some uncertainty attached given widespread airplane retrofits that will need to happen before it can be deployed safely.
“This spectrum’s deployment cadence is very much up in the air, meaning if you really wanted more spectrum, you’d be bidding harder, and we don’t see that here,” he wrote. “By extension, this challenges the narrative they are gunning for the terrestrial market.”
Another six bidding rounds are scheduled Friday. The first ended at 10:30 a.m. and brought in another nearly $75 million. Rounds will continue each business day until there are no new bids.
