Broadband Competition Not Letting Up for Cable: Analysts
Comcast said 70 percent of its free mobile lines converted to paying customers
WASHINGTON, Sept. 15, 2026 – Broadband competition doesn’t show signs of letting up any time soon, according to industry analysts.
That’s not ideal for cable giants Charter and Comcast, who have been on the losing end of that increased competition.
Wolfe’s Research analyst Peter Supino said in an investor note the firm was lowering its broadband subscribers estimates for both companies.
“Broadband industry competition should intensify over the coming years,” he wrote. “Fiber construction and promotion should maintain 2026's peak rates while Starlink supply should multiply. If Starlink cuts service prices to fill up newly deployed capacity, FWA will decelerate, and cable will shrink faster.”
Comcast CFO Jason Armstrong said last week at a Goldman Sachs conference that the company expected worse third quarter broadband losses than last year. He attributed that largely to “irrational pricing” from new fiber builders offering gigabit plans for $30-$40 per month.
UBS analysts led by John Hodulik agreed competition appeared to be worsening. They predicted Comcast would still lose fewer broadband subs this year than last year (about 588,000 residential losses versus 654,000), even with a much worse third quarter than analysts had been targeting.
Hodulik also predicted Comcast’s broadband average revenue per user (ARPU) would begin declining slower in the third quarter, and even slower in the fourth quarter as promotions from last year were lapped.
Supino noted that Comcast had already foregone rate hikes over the last year and seen ARPU fall, without much of a benefit in terms of subscriber losses.
“Accelerating losses could lead to repeated price cuts as Comcast looks to stabilize volumes,” he wrote.
Charter’s recently acquired Cox footprint, about 6 million subscribers, is also shrinking fast due to higher prices, Supino noted. He estimated about three times faster than Charter’s existing footprint.
That puts Charter in a tricky spot, he wrote, because bringing Cox’s ARPU down to match Charter’s would result in a big hit to Cox’s broadband revenue. But it might be necessary to avoid further subscriber losses in the long term, he wrote.
As for Charter’s subscriber losses, CEO Chris Winfrey said at the same Goldman conference last week that the company has seen a “sales uplift” from offering its plans in Cox’s footprint.
“It’s late in the quarter, so don’t take this for more than it is,” he cautioned.
The company said last week it was planning on offering its Spectrum brand to existing Cox customers soon.
Mobile a bright spot
New Street Research analyst Vikash Harlalka said in an investor note it wasn’t a surprise that competition was looking rough for cable. New Street has already predicted cable ISPs likely won’t return to subscriber growth this decade.
Still, the firm was expecting flat year-over-year losses at Comcast, rather than a worsening.
A big part of Charter and Comcast’s plan for mitigating those losses is selling cheap plans bundling fixed and mobile broadband, often offering free lines for the first year. Comcast’s Armstrong said at the conference that 70 percent of its free line users rolled over into paying customers.
“There has been some skepticism from investors about the success of free wireless lines given away by Cable companies,” Harlalka wrote. “If over 70% of these free lines convert to paid, the Cable companies will take this trade all day long.”
UBS estimated Comcast’s wireless service revenue would continue to grow in the third quarter and generally figured that “mobile will be a rising tailwind to 2H26 financial performance as free lines are converted to paying accounts” amid broadband losses.
Harlalka wrote that New Street agreed $30-$40 was oddly low for gigabit plans. He wrote it was likely regional promotions aimed at getting quick penetration, and would subside once new subscribers had been gained.
“We don’t view these isolated pricing incidents as an indicator of a broader pricing issue in the broadband market,” he wrote.
