White Paper

The 5G Promise Falls Short of Reality: Examining Economic Impact Claims

White Paper Provided by George S. Ford, PhD from the Phoenix Center for Advanced Legal and Economic Public Policy Studies

Over the past decade, the mobile wireless  industry has promoted 5G as a transformative  technology—one that will boost the U.S.  economy by over $1 trillion and create millions of  jobs. They described 5G not just as a faster  internet connection, but as a technology that will  transform everything affecting the average  American’s life—from healthcare and  transportation to manufacturing and education.  The industry’s claims have shaped public policy  debates, influencing decisions about spectrum  allocation, infrastructure investments, and  regulatory priorities.  

But once 5G began to roll out, the mobile wireless  industry’s big promises started to face serious  questions. Many users noticed little difference  between 5G and the previous generation (4G).  Some media outlets and tech experts called 5G an  “overhyped technology bust.” And as talk of 6G  begins to emerge, it’s worth asking: Has 5G  really delivered the massive economic benefits  we were promised?

This Paper examines that question using federal data on 5G availability and key  economic indicators across U.S. counties, which vary in 5G deployment. The findings are straightforward: there is no evidence that 5G  deployment has improved employment, wages,  business growth, personal income, or GDP.  Despite the industry’s sweeping promises, the  data show no measurable economic impact from  5G so far.

This result does not imply that 5G lacks value— better connectivity can support specific use cases  and improve service quality. But this result does raise serious doubts about the narrative that 5G  is a fundamental economic game-changer. As the  industry begins to promote 6G and to seek additional spectrum, policymakers should  proceed with caution. Public resources and regulatory choices should be guided by evidence—not marketing campaigns. This analysis provides a grounded perspective to support more realistic, outcome-driven telecommunications policy.

Background  

America’s mobile wireless industry seems in constant need of additional radio spectrum. With  the evolution of networks to 5G, the industry launched a marketing campaign promising substantial economic benefits. For example, according to a 2021 Boston Consulting Group (“BCG”) study commissioned by CTIA, “5G will become a foundation for innovation” and it will have “broad and deep economic implications both by industry and by region.”^[1]